Vick is an intriguing #1 QB option, but injury history is also worrisome.

1. Michael Vick – Philadelphia Eagles – Bye Week 7

2010 Points: 315

2011 Projection: 4200 yards, 25 TD’s, 14 INT’s, 850 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD’s, 5 FL

2011 Points: 389

Injury Risk: Very High
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

Michael Vick single handily took over fantasy match-ups last year with his play. His play wasn’t as great towards the end of the year though. Regardless, we should still expect great numbers from him. Over his last 7 games where it looked like defenses we’re really keying in on him he still put up great numbers. I averaged those numbers out to get a full season and then adjusted them a bit. As you can see, he’s still projected to put up great numbers. The only thing that will stop him is getting hurt, which is a bit of a concern.

2. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – Bye Week 8

2010 Point: 315

2011 Projection: 4400 yards, 30 TD’s, 10 INT’s, 350 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD’s, 2 FL

2011 Points: 341

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

Aaron Rodgers has been very consistent in his two years as a starter. His passing numbers would have been nearly identical the past 2 years had he not missed a game and a half this past year. I expect more of the same from Rodgers. I don’t think he has the potential to get 40+ passing TD’s unless the Packers add another huge weapon at receiver.

3. Tom Brady – New England Patriots – Bye Week 7

2010 Points: 303

2011 Projection: 4000 yards, 32 TD’s, 9 INT’s, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 2 FL

2011 Points: 286

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

Tom Brady had the least amount of passing attempts since 2004 last season. Are the Patriots moving towards a more balanced offense, or was it simply because Moss sucked and Welker was banged up? I’m on the low side with my projections but Brady should still be in for a good year.

4. Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – Bye Week 11

2010 Points: 293

2011 Projection: 4400 yards, 33 TD’s, 16 INT’s, 3 FL

2011 Points: 286

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Drew Brees is consistent so you know what you’re gonna get.  His interception numbers should be down from last year though. He’s known for throwing picks but 22 was uncharacteristically high. I think the Madden curse had something to do with that.

5. Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts – Bye Week 11

2010 Points: 303

2011 Projection: 4400 yards, 31 TD’s, 15 INT’s, 1 FL

2011 Points: 283

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Is Peyton Manning starting to regress? His interception numbers have climbed, although he did throw nearly 700 times this past season. I expect those numbers to fall a bit. Donald Brown and Delone Carter should be a bigger part of the offense and bring back some of the balance they had when Addai was leading the way.

6. Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys – Bye Week 5

2010 Points: 106

2011 Projections: 4500 yards, 27 TD’s, 15 INT’s, 100 rushing yards, 3 FL

2011 Points: 277

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Tony Romo was off to a decent start last year before getting hurt. I think we know what we can expect from Romo now in terms of fantasy stats. He is a bit of an injury risk though and he could get re-injured. He’s worth a look in the middle rounds and should be a good value pick.

7. Philip Rivers – San Diego Chargers – Bye Week 6

2010 Points: 294

2011 Projection: 4300 yards, 29 TD’s, 10 INT’s, 50 rushing yards, 4 FL

2011 Points: 275

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Philip Rivers also threw for a career high in yards last year, but he also had the most attempts of his career. Losing LT hurt and there was some uncertainty in the back field so it makes sense. I think his attempts will go back down this year but he’ll continue to be efficient. He has a lot of potential though because he’s one of those guys that could push 5000 passing yards.

8. Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers – Bye Week 11

2010 Points: 215

2011 Projections: 4300 yards, 24 TD’s, 11 INT’s, 100 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD’s, 3 FL

2011 Points: 273

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Big Ben had a good year last year despite missing the opening 4 games of the season. He was on pace to better his 2009 season which was impressive. The addition of Mike Wallace has been a huge boost to the Steelers offense and has allowed them to take more shots down field. Ben should again put up a lot of yards and could be gunning for a new career high in that regard.

9. Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – Bye Week 8

2010 Points: 261

2011 Projections: 3900 yards, 30 TD’s, 13 INT’s, 100 rushing yards, 3 FL

2011 Points: 267

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Matt Ryan’s YPA was dreadful last year but the Falcons offense should be opening up this year. I see more attempts for Matt Ryan which ultimately leads to more yards, but also more mistakes. Julio Jones should help out and Matt Ryan should continue to improve but he is still not a top-tier QB.

10. Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions – Bye Week 7

2010 Points: 49

2011 Projections: 3900 yards, 26 TD’s, 16 INT’s, 150 rushing yards, 2 TD’s, 2 FL

2011 Points: 267

Injury Risk: Very High
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

I think Stafford is a great QB. He has all the tools to be a great starter in this league. Obviously the injuries are holding him back and that makes him a huge risk. If he can stay healthy though, he should put up great numbers. That’s a big IF though, so he shouldn’t be drafted till late in your fantasy draft and you better have another QB in place to be your #1 guy.

11. Matt Schaub – Houston Texans – Bye Week 11

2010 Points: 258

2011 Projections: 4400 yards, 25 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 50 rushing yards, 3 FL

2011 Points: 263

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

The Texans are known for airing it out but with the emergence of Arian Foster they will probably run the ball a lot more in 2011. Schaub should still get his yards but they need to sign another receiver to play opposite of Andre Johnson. Of course Schaub is usually a bargain in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts but he’s always a big risk because of his injury history.

12. Josh Freeman – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bye Week 8

2010 Points: 264

2011 Projections: 3600 yards, 25 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 320 rushing yards, 3 FL

2011 Points: 258

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Is Josh Freeman for real? He had a great season but didn’t face the toughest opponents. I think he can be great, but I’ll be on the cautious side with my projections. I definitely don’t think he can have another year of single digit interceptions. He can beat those numbers I projected for him, but he’s a bit of a risk.

13. Eli Manning – New York Giants – Bye Week 7

2010 Points: 256

2011 Projections: 4100 yards, 28 TD’s, 18 INT’s, 70 rushing yards, 4 FL

2011 Points: 257

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Eli Manning was a pick machine last year and that could be attributed to a number of things. His running game was shaky and he was forced to throw more often, his offensive line was terrible at times and he was rushed into a lot of his throws, and to top it all off he had some really bad breaks with receivers dropping balls or tipping the ball in the air. I see much of the same for 2011. The running game and offensive line remain untouched, although his receivers are 1 year better and more mature. His interception numbers should still be high, but he won’t be so unlucky again.

14. Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens – Bye Week 5

2010 Points: 241

2011 Projections: 3700 yards, 26 TD’s, 11 INT’s, 100 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 FL

2011 Points: 251

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

The Ravens have done a good job of getting weapons for Flacco on offense but they still remain a running team. Flacco has thrown for 3600 yards each of the past 2 seasons and I don’t expect that to change drastically. He has been improving steadily but I think we are close to reaching his plateau. I don’t think he’ll ever reach the elite status both in terms of Fantasy and in the NFL.

15. Jay Cutler – Chicago Bears – Bye Week 8

2010 Points: 226

2011 Projections: 3600 yards, 25 TD’s, 16 INT’s, 200 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 FL

2011 Points: 249

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

Jay Cutler hasn’t exactly been lighting it up in Chicago but he hasn’t had much help. His OL has been horrible and he still lacks a true #1 WR. The OL figures to be improved with the addition of Carimi but don’t expect a night and day difference. As for his WR’s, well it’s still the same bunch. With Mike Martz anything is possible though and if they choose to throw the ball more this year, Cutler could throw for a lot of yards.

16. Ryan Fitzpatrick – Buffalo Bills – Bye Week 7

2010 Points: 214

2011 Projections: 3400 yards, 22 TD’s, 17 INT’s, 350 rushing yards, 1 TD, 4 FL

2011 Points: 240

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Very High

Analysis:

Towards the end of the year last season, Fitzpatrick actually became a dependable starter. I have my doubts about whether he can continue his current form or if we’ll get the old Fitzpatrick that could ultimately lead to him getting benched. There is a lot of bust potential with not a lot of upside so he isn’t worth getting drafted unless you’re in a really deep league and need a back-up.

17. Mark Sanchez – New York Jets – Bye Week 8

2010 Points: 215

2011 Projections: 3500 yards, 19 TD’s, 14 INT’s, 100 rushing yards, 2 TD’s, 1 FL

2011 Points: 222

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

I think Mark Sanchez is highly overrated by the media. He has improved from his rookie season but he was a bit lucky at times last year. He actually had the most interceptions dropped out of any QB last year by a wide margin. I really don’t think he will explode this year and turn into an elite QB. He has had a stacked team and still hasn’t put up great numbers. I think he’ll improve, but I’m not sure he is worthy of getting drafted unless you’re in a deeper league.

18. Alex Smith – San Francisco 49ers – Bye Week 9

2010 Points: 143

2011 Projections: 3400 yards, 22 TD’s, 14 INT’s, 150 rushing yards, 4 FL

2011 Points: 217

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Very High

Analysis:

Alex Smith will get yet another chance to prove himself. He actually hasn’t been bad the past 2 seasons finishing both years with a QB rating over 80. Not bad for someone who is considered a huge bust. He has potential and Harbaugh may be able to get him to live up to it. It’s still a big if though because it seems like the same story every year.

19. Sam Bradford – St. Louis Rams – Bye Week 5

2010 Points: 205

2011 Projections: 3700 yards, 20 TD’s, 13 INT’s, 50 rushing yards, 2 FL

2011 Points: 216

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: Very High

Analysis:

I guess I’m not on the Bradford bandwagon. He threw almost 600 passes last year and still ended up with just 3500 yards thanks to all the check downs. He really struggled after the bye week when teams started to zero in on him. He threw just 7 TD passes to go along with 7 INT’s. I don’t think his numbers will take a big step forward this year and he might even get worse. Pettis and Salas aren’t great talents are receiver and both Clayton and Avery are  coming off of serious injuries so don’t expect them to be the same players they we’re. Bradford is not worth drafting in my opinion.

20. Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers – Bye Week 9

2010 Points: N/A

2011 Projections: 2500 yards, 14 TD’s, 16 INT’s, 500 rushing yards, 5 TD’s, 4 FL

2011 Points: 212

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Very High

Analysis:

Cam Newton is an intriguing option because he figures to post solid rushing numbers. As I said in my fantasy rookie preview earlier he won’t put up great numbers as a rookie. I looked at QB’s similar to him and how they fared in their rookie seasons and for the most part it wasn’t pretty.

21. Jason Campbell – Oakland Raiders – Bye Week 8

2010 Points: 165

2011 Projections: 3100 yards, 18 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 250 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 FL

2011 Points: 211

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

Jason Campbell has never really been a fantasy threat because he is a mediocre QB. He’s set at the Raiders starter because he figures to be handing the ball off to McFadden a lot this year. He is a game manager but don’t confuse him with a franchise QB. His rushing totals give him a boost, but it’s still not enough to make him a draftable fantasy QB.

22. Donovan McNabb – Minnesota Vikings – Bye Week 9

2010 Points: 165

2011 Projections: 3400 yards, 18 TD’s, 14 INT’s, 150 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 FL

2011 Points: 209

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Very High

Analysis:

McNabb will be the starter but he might not start every game. It’s certainly a much better situation than Washington last year, so his numbers should be decent, but not good enough to make much of a fantasy impact.

23. Kevin Kolb – Arizona Cardinals – Bye Week 6

2010 Points: 59

2011 Projections: 3700 yards, 19 TD’s, 17 INT’s, 100 rushing yards, 4 FL

2011 Points: 209

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

I’m not a big fan of Kolb and thought the Cardinals gave up a ridiculous amount in the trade to get him. He hasn’t proven anything yet in the NFL and I think he’ll be mediocre at best in his first season in Arizona. He’s a fantasy back-up at best with some upside, if you really believe in him (I don’t).

24. Chad Henne – Miami Dolphins – Bye Week 5

2010 Points: 174

2011 Projections: 3500 yards, 18 TD’s, 18 INT’s, 50 rushing yards, 1 FL

2011 Points: 197

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Very High

Analysis:

Henne could lose his starting job at any point this season so he’s not much of a fantasy threat. He’s always had potential but he always makes dumb mistakes at costly times. If he learns how to be a game manager he can be more successful but I haven’t seen that from him yet.

25. Matt Cassel – Kansas City Chiefs – Bye Week 6

2010 Points: 237

2011 Projections: 3000 yards, 18 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 180 rushing yards, 2 FL

2011 Points: 194

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Very High

Analysis:

If you think that Cassel has finally taken the step forward and become a top-tier QB, you are wrong. Last year was a fluke and exaggerated Cassel’s real ability. He is a check down type QB who benefited from Charlie Weiss. He had the lowest attempts of his 3 year starting career and still had a poor YPA. The TD numbers will not repeat themselves unless the Chiefs really force the pass in the redzone. Cassel will fall back down to earth and I highly encourage you not to draft him as a potential #1.

26. Colt McCoy – Cleveland Browns – Bye Week 5

2010 Points: 98

2011 Projections: 3000 yards, 13 TD’s, 17 INT’s, 250 rushing yards, 2 TD’s, 2 FL

2011 Points: 188

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: Very High

Analysis:

Colt McCoy had some great games last year but ended the year with 2 horrible games. Granted they we’re against the Steelers and Ravens but he’ll face those teams 4 times each season so he can’t escape from them. He showed promise but I’m not sure he’ll be a legit starter. As a prospect he was rated poorly and I’m sticking with my initial scouting report.

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