1. Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers – Bye Week 6
2010 Points: 134
2011 Projections: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 10 TD’s
2011 Points: 170
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low
Analysis:
Antonio Gates has to be the #1 TE again this year. He’s incredibly consistent as he hasn’t caught less than 8 TD’s since his rookie year. He’s being slowed down a bit by another injury but he should be ready for the regular season and he should be in for a monster season.
2. Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts – Bye Week 11
2010 Points: 51
2011 Projections: 85 receptions, 950 yards, 8 TD’s
2011 Points: 143
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low
Analysis:
Dallas Clark is another TE who should bounce back after being injured. I don’t think he’ll catch 100 passes again since Peyton will have all of his weapons available. Austin Collie should take away some of Clarks receptions as he himself is a PPR beast. Still Clark is a very good option at TE for consistent production.
3. Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys – Bye Week 5
2010 Points: 146
2011 Projections: 90 receptions, 1050 yards, 6 TD’s
2011 Points: 141
Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low
Analysis:
It’s amazing that in a season where his starting QB got hurt and we saw the emergence of Dez Bryant, Witten finished the year as the #1 ranked fantasy TE. He also caught a career high 9 TD passes. He’s consistent so we know what to expect. The only thing that is unknown is his TD total which has varied a lot through his career.
4. Vernon Davis – San Francisco 49ers – Bye Week 9
2010 Points: 129
2011 Projections: 65 receptions, 850 yards, 8 TD’s
2011 Points: 133
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Low
Analysis:
Vernon Davis finally broke out 2 years ago and has been tearing it up ever since with back-to-back 900+ yard seasons. He has yet to play with a consistent QB and he won’t again this year. Still, you expect Harbaugh to use Davis as much as possible in the passing game.
5. Jermichael Finley – Green Bay Packers – Bye Week 8
2010 Points: 34
2011 Projections: 70 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TD’s
2011 Points: 132
Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Finley has the potential to put up monster numbers. He’s a great pass catcher and he plays in an explosive offense. The problem is he can’t stay healthy. He’s been in the league 3 years now and has yet to play a full 16 game season. He’s risky but if he stays healthy he’ll produce for you.
6. Jimmy Graham – New Orleans Saints – Bye Week 11
2010 Points: 61
2011 Projections: 65 receptions, 750 yards, 8 TD’s
2011 Points: 123
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Everyone is on the Jimmy Graham bandwagon and he should be in for a fine season. The problem is that he is getting a bit overrated now. I’ve seen people take him in the 4th-5th round which is too high for an unproven TE. It just doesn’t seem right. He’s good but now there’s added risk. He’s still young and right now he’s relying on his athleticism to make plays, there’s no guarantee he will blow up and be a star.
7. Brandon Pettigrew – Detroit Lions – Bye Week 7
2010 Points: 88
2011 Projections: 80 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD’s
2011 Points: 121
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low
Analysis:
Pettigrew is a beast both as a run blocker and pass catcher. He should have an even bigger role in the offense this year especially if Stafford can stay healthy. He’s a good PPR option but his lack of TD’s will hurt him. He needs Stafford to stay healthy to put him over the top and into that next tier of TE’s.
8. Rob Gronkowski – New England Patriots – Bye Week 7
2010 Points: 107
2011 Projections: 55 receptions, 700 yards, 8 TD’s
2011 Points: 118
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Gronkowski was a beast in the 2nd half of the season last year. His future looks bright but Aaron Hernandez is still there and will steal some of his targets. Gronkowski is definitely the redzone option so expect his TD numbers to be high again.
9. Owen Daniels – Houston Texans – Bye Week 11
2010 Points: 53
2011 Projections, 65 receptions, 800 yards, 5 TD’s
2011 Points: 110
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Owen Daniels is back to 100% and should be back to his ’08 form. His TD totals have been very disappointing throughout his career. The best he could muster was 5 TD’s twice. Is that a fluke or do the Texans just not like to use him in the redzone? With Andre Johnson on the team I could understand they would target him more but still very disappointing.
10. Kellen Winslow – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bye Week 8
2010 Points: 96
2011 Projections: 65 receptions, 720 yards, 6 TD’s
2011 Points: 108
Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Kellen Winslow is talented but then there’s those issues with his knees. He’s in a promising situation though. Playing with an up-and-coming QB and generally on a team going in the right direction. Winslow also struggles with TD totals however. He’s never caught more than 5 in a season. If he stays healthy this year I think he can top 5.
11. Marcedes Lewis – Jacksonville Jaguars – Bye Week 9
2010 Points: 119
2011 Projections: 55 receptions, 650 yards, 7 TD’s
2011 Points: 107
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Marcedes Lewis broke out last year and caught 10 TD passes which made him relevant in the fantasy world. However his reception and yardage total wasn’t really anything special. The Jags have never been much of a passing team so his numbers are limited. I don’t see him repeating his numbers in 2011.
12. Jared Cook – Tennessee Titans – Bye Week 6
2010 Points: 37
2011 Projections: 60 receptions, 720 yards, 5 TD’s
2011 Points: 102
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
I like the idea of Hasselbeck throwing to Cook much better than Jake Locker. I’m giving him a slight boost.
I love Jared Cook as a late-round sleeper this year. He was one of my favorite TE’s in the 2009 draft because of his pure athletic talent. He’s 6’5 and clocked a 4.49 in the 40 to go along with his 41 inch vertical. He produced as well. In the last 6 games of 2010 he caught 24 passes. Projected that over a season and you get 64 catches. Considering him and Bo Scaife combined for 97 targets and 65 receptions. Use Cook’s catch rate based on those 97 targets and you get 63 receptions. It’s very likely he’ll get around 60 receptions and he has that speed to stretch the field. He played well even when Rusty Smith starting so I wouldn’t worry about Jake Locker messing things up.
13. Tony Gonzalez – Atlanta Falcons – Bye Week 8
2010 Points: 94
2011 Projections: 65 receptions, 600 yards, 6 TD’s
2011 Points: 96
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Gonzalez is just not the same TE he used to be and it was blatantly obvious in his play last year. He averaged a career low 9.4 YPC and had trouble creating separation consistently. He’ll still get targeted and likely will be still utilized a lot near the goal line but it’s hard to get excited about his potential.
14. Ed Dickson – Baltimore Ravens – Bye Week 5
2010 Points: 17
2011 Projections: 50 receptions, 650 yards, 5 TD’s
2011 Points: 95
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
Ed Dickson will start this year for the Ravens. Dickson is a great receiver and he’s very athletic. He’s exactly what the Ravens offense needs. At worst he’ll put up Todd Heap numbers but he can be so much better.
15. Dustin Keller – New York Jets – Bye Week 7
2010 Points: 89
2011 Projections: 60 receptions, 700 yards, 4 TD’s
2011 Points: 94
Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
Well, Keller was SUPPOSED to be more involved in the offense but then the Jets picked up Burress and Mason to take away targets from him. Expect another mediocre year from Keller.
Keller was one of the most targeted TE’s in the league last year but only ended up with a measly 55 receptions. You would expect that number to improve by default. He’s very talented and the Jets should be more comfortable with Sanchez passing the ball this year. His numbers should improve this year.
16. Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers – Bye Week 9
2010 Points: 60
2011 Projections: 60 receptions, 600 yards, 5 TD’s
2011 Points: 90
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
Greg Olsen will finally be utilized in an offense! Too bad he doesn’t have a QB. Even with horrible QB play last year, the Panthers TE’s caught 52 passes. Surely, Olsen can beat that right since he’s their #2 receiving target on offense? I’m still not buying the high TD totals though. 5-6 is reasonable, at best.
17. Travis Beckum – New York Giants – Bye Week 7
2010 Points: 20
2011 Projections: 45 receptions, 600 yards, 5 TD’s
2011 Points: 90
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
Travis Beckum gets the starting job by default after Boss left town and Patrick retired. I like Beckum. He’s an athletic pass catching TE who can make plays. He can easily do what Boss did as a receiver, in fact he’s better. He’s got some potential so keep an eye out on him.
18. Chris Cooley – Washington Redskins – Bye Week 5
2010 Points: 96
2011 Projections: 65 receptions, 700 yards, 3 TD’s
2011 Points: 88
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Cooley had a nice bounce back season but I don’t like him heading into the 2011 season. He’s going to have John Beck throwing him the ball which will hurt his production. He’ll get a lot of targets but poor yards and a lot of those passes figure to be off target. It also means his poor TD production won’t be increasing any time soon.
19. Benjamin Watson – Cleveland Browns – Bye Week 5
2010 Points: 88
2011 Projections: 65 receptions, 700 yards, 3 TD’s
2011 Points: 88
Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Watson had by far his best season as a pro last year but he still wasn’t that great of a fantasy TE. The lack of TD’s hurt him and unless Colt McCoy really steps up his game, he’ll still be limited in that regard. He should continue to catch a lot of passes however.
20. Brent Celek – Philadelphia Eagles – Bye Week 7
2010 Points: 69
2011 Projections: 50 receptions, 600 yards, 4 TD’s
2011 Points: 84
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Vick doesn’t like to throw to his TE, at least not nearly as much as Kolb and McNabb. Celek’s numbers fell drastically last year compared to his 2009 season. They should go back up, but don’t expect a huge turnaround.
21. Aaron Hernandez – New England Patriots – Bye Week 7
2010 Points: 89
2011 Projections: 40 receptions, 500 yards, 5 TD’s
2011 Points: 80
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
If it wasn’t for his TD’s, the second half of the year for Hernandez was a bad one. He wasn’t nearly as involved in the offense as he was early in the season and Gronkowski saw an expanded role. He did continue to catch TD’s but I wonder if the Pats are content with Gronkowski being the main guy and Hernandez as a second fiddle. I think his numbers might go down this year as they look to get Gronkowski even more involved.
22. Kevin Boss – Oakland Raiders – Bye Week 8
2010 Points: 75
2011 Projections: 45 receptions, 550 yards, 4 TD’s
2011 Points: 79
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
I like the Kevin Boss signing by the Raiders. Boss can do what Miller can do but he’s also a great blocker. I project lower numbers than Miller but that’s because the Raiders want to use McFadden more in the offense so naturally he’ll see fewer targets.
23. Zach Miller – Seattle Seahawks – Bye Week 6
2010 Points: 90
2011 Projections: 45 receptions, 550 yards, 4 TD’s
2011 Points: 79
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
Miller is now with the Seahawks and actually finds himself working with a worse QB than Jason Campbell. I don’t like Miller as a starter anymore.
Zach Miller is a free agent so there’s no way of knowing who he will play for next season. If he sticks with the Raiders he should be a big part of the offense again. He’s very consistent but his TD production is poor. That likely won’t change if he stays with the Raiders. Still, he’s a solid option that will give you consistent production each week.
24. Tony Moeaki – Kansas City Chiefs – Bye Week 6
2010 Points: 68
2011 Projections: 50 receptions, 550 yards, 4 TD’s
2011 Points: 79
Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Tony Moeaki was utilized more in the offense when Weis was running the show and after he left Moeaki’s numbers went down. He’s talented but I just don’t trust the Chiefs offense and Matt Cassel to consistently get him the ball.
25. Jermaine Gresham – Cincinnati Bengals – Bye Week 7
2010 Points: 64
2011 Projections: 50 receptions, 500 yards, 4 TD’s
2011 Points: 74
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
Rookie QB’s tend to favor their TE’s early on. It’s a nice security blanket. Gresham should see quite a few targets but his YPC will be poor again. I also can’t see him getting many TD’s as the Bengals offense looks pretty bad right now.
26. Todd Heap – Arizona Cardinals – Bye Week 6
2010 Points: 83
2011 Projections: 40 receptions, 450 yards, 4 TD’s
2011 Points: 69
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Medium
Analysis:
Update Aug. 11:
Todd Heap’s stock shouldn’t really change much. While Kolb does love to throw to his TE’s I doubt Heap has a career year. The Cardinals also drafted Rob Housler who is a receiving TE that they want to get involved. He’ll steal some targets from Heap.
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